Tuesday, November 15, 2011

The NFL's Balance of Power Has Clearly Shifted to the NFC



From 2002-2007, the AFC won five out of six Super Bowls, including three by the Patriots.  Those six seasons also boasted several excellent Steelers, Ravens, Chargers and Colts squads.  It was truly an era of AFC dominance.

Although the AFC has still won six of the last ten Super Bowls, the balance of power has clearly shifted to the NFC, as they arguably boast the NFL's four best teams -- Packers, 49'ers, Giants and Saints -- and winners of the last two Super Bowls.

The Packers are the NFL's only undefeated team at 9-0 and are led by the NFL's best player and highest rated passer, QB Aaron Rodgers, who has five solid receivers and an outstanding tight end at his disposal.  Their talented defense will also send 5-6 starters to the Pro Bowl.  Furthermore, they have one of the NFL's youngest squad's with ten starters who are 26 or younger.

The 49'ers are the League's only 8-1 squad and are lead by a defense that boasts four potential Pro Bowlers -- LB's NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith and DE Justin Smith.  They also possess a physical, rugged rushing attack led by RB Frank Gore.  They beat an outstanding Giants team on Sunday, 27-20.

The Giants are 6-3 and have one of the League's best defenses, featuring one of the NFL's deepest defensive lines, which includes rising second year Defensive End Jason Pierre-Paul -- who has 9.5 sacks -- and veteran Osi Umenyiora.  However, what has propelled the Giants to one of the NFL's top squads has been the outstanding play of QB Eli Manning, who is having his best season, completing 63.1% of his passes for 2,688 yards (298.7 a game), 17 scores and a 97.0 Quarterback Rating.

The Saints improved their record to 7-3 on Sunday with a hard fought overtime victory in Atlanta.  Drew Brees is having another Pro Bowl season, completing 71% of his throws for 3,326 yards, 23 scores and a 101.3 Rating.  His production has been further buoyed by the offseason acquisition of versatile RB Darren Sproles and the emergence of second year TE Jimmy Graham, who leads all NFL tight ends with 62 catches for 873 yards; he also has 6 touchdown receptions.

The Packers, 49'ers and Saints also have three of the top four point differentials in the NFL.

On the other hand, the AFC top four teams -- the Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Patriots -- are all deeply flawed.

The Steelers have a suspect offensive line without a standout offensive tackle, an aging defensive line, a liability at corner, and they lack a true downhill, pounding running back, with Rashard Mendenhall averaging only 3.8 yards a carry.

The Ravens are 2-3 on the road, with losses to Jacksonville and to Seattle, and still have inconsistent moments on offense.  The Texans have already lost Pro Bowler Mario Williams for the season, and now QB Matt Schaub is out indefinitely with an injured foot, while the Patriots entered Week 10 with the NFL's lowest rated defense, as Bill Belichick starts three former undrafted free agents, including two in the secondary.  The Patriots problems are compounded by the lack of a true starting caliber running back on offense.

With the Packers and 49'ers being two of the NFL's youngest squads, we may well be entering a new era of NFC dominance and a true shift in the NFL's balance of power.

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