Monday, August 29, 2011

Notre Dame is Finally Back on the National Scene

Last preseason, Auburn was ranked 23rd in the USA Today Coach's Poll and 22nd in the AP Poll, and few could have predicted an undefeated run and a breakout year led by a JUCO transfer named Cam Newton.  This year, Notre Dame is ranked 18th in the USA Today Coach's Poll and 16th in the AP Poll, and while I'm not saying that ND is going to make an Auburn-type run, they finally have the right head man in Brian Kelly and the athletes to once again be relevant on the national scene.

ND is coming off a 4-0 finish to the 2010 season and are positioned to improve upon last season's 8-5 mark.  They return 9 starters on offense, including the return to health of QB Dayne Crist.  Kelly has been very outspoken during camp about Crist's makeup and at times his toughness in 2010, but sees a different QB and leader this summer. "He is a much better football player, he is a much better quarterback.  And I would say quite frankly and honestly, he's the kind of guy I want to coach.  He's tougher mentally. He handles himself in the leadership position the way I want our quarterbacks to handle it.  I didn't know Dayne very well last year.  I can't tell you that I felt the same about him last year.  But I do now," Kelly said.

If Crist can stay healthy, he has the size, NFL arm strength and the offensive weapons to make a surprise run at the Heisman Trophy and the First Round of the 2012 NFL Draft, much like the aforementioned Newton did last fall.

When it comes to weapons, few teams can boast the three headed monster of future NFL WR Michael Floyd, slot WR Theo Riddick and Sophomore TJ Jones, who is poised for a breakout campaign himself.  RB Cierre Wood has great size, speed and is a capable receiver and a potential difference maker who began to finally put it all together late in 2010.  Moreover, the offense should improve greatly in 2011, simply from the fact that most of the players now have 2 springs and 2 preseason camps with Kelly.

The Defense should also be much improved, as it held its final 4 opponents last season to an average of 9.8 points and 276.5 total yards per game.  Furthermore, this is the first year that the unit has the talent and the depth to effectively run its 3-4 scheme, with their whole defensive line returning and the expected emergence of super recruit Aaron Lynch, a four star DE who was nearly unblockable in the Spring Game.  Junior ILB Manti Te'o is a future NFL first rounder who brings great toughness, tenacity and leadership to the second level, along with the playmaking skills of OLB Darius Fleming.  

The secondary boosts 2 longtime starters at CB, including future NFL prospect Gary Gray, and preseason All-American Harrison Smith at Safety.  Freshmen DE Stephon Tuitt and OLB Ishaq Williams, along with Lynch, will provide depth and potential impact, as they represent the best influx of front seven talent into ND in the last 10-15 years.

Overall, the offense has a solid offensive line and some great playmakers, along with Crist, who has the ability and now the coaching to rise up Draft charts.  The Defense, for the first time since the Holtz era, has potential difference makers at all 3 levels, with Lynch at DE, Te'o at LB and Smith and Gray in the secondary.  

The schedule is always challenging, but the USC and Michigan State games are in South Bend, and while Michigan will be improved, they will be a much better squad in late October and in November than when ND plays them in Week 3.  It could all come down to a big matchup on November 26th in Palo Alto between the preseason Heisman favorite, Andrew Luck, and a kid from Southern California who many will know rather well by then, Dayne Crist.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Raiders Selection of Pryor Was Almost Expected...



If you have studied the Supplemental Draft over the years and have witnessed the Raiders love of size and speed, then their selection of Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor in the 3rd round of yesterday's Supplemental Draft should come as no surprise.  The only surprise is that other national media types were in the dark, calling Pryor "at best a 5 or 6th round selection."  

The NFL Supplemental Draft has produced some gems over the years -- QB Bernie Kosar, NT Jamal Williams, OL Mike Wahle -- but it has more overwhelmingly produced some real reaches and some busts, like past 1st rounders LB Brian "The Boz" Bosworth, QB Dave Brown, QB Timm Rosenbach, QB Steve Walsh, as well as 2nd round RB Tony Hollings, who the Texans gambled on in 2003.  In fact, of the 34 players selected from 1977-2005, only 16 ever started an NFL game, and 9 never even played in an NFL regular season game.  

Historically, the Supplemental Draft has taken place in the summer after Free Agency, OTA's and Minicamps, but before the start of training camp.  This year was an anomaly, as it took place in the middle of training camp because of the labor impasse.  

Many of the aforementioned busts and reaches were the results of teams overlooking player shortcomings or character concerns because of a severe need that could potentially be filled before having to wait until the following April's Draft or until the next cycle of free agency.  Simply put, teams, like the Texans in 2003 with Tony Hollings, reached for instant gratification and potential return.  We see the same thing in April's Draft when a team like the Broncos traded a 2010 1st Round selection to select CB Alphonso Smith with the 37th pick in the 2nd Round of the 2009 Draft, a move the club still regrets.  Former GM Bobby Beathard also routinely burned his formers teams -- the Chargers and Redskins -- by dealing future 1's for 2's -- all for instant gratification.

Furthermore, the Raiders have always sought size and speed -- at times, above all else.  Whether it be Cliff Branch, Ron Brown, Alexander Wright, Willie Gault, James Jett or more recently Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford, we all know that there will be a discussion of the "Need for Speed" somewhere in Al Davis's eulogy.  Add in the fact that the Raiders have a sketchy -- to say the least -- recent draft history, along with teams past penchant for rolling the dice in the Supplemental Draft, how could anyone think that the Raiders would let a 6' 5" and 236 lbs. athlete with 4.37 speed, like Pryor, slip into the 5th or 6th Round?

To me, it was a no brainer -- my only question was whether Al Davis would spend a 2nd or a 3rd Rounder on Pryor.  Well, considering that he's spent a 1st rounder on a punter (Hall of Famer Ray Guy) and a kicker (Sebastian Janikowski), I would not have been shocked if he had given up his rights in the 2012 Andrew Luck derby!

That said, the selection of Pryor may well prove to NOT be a reach at all.  Pryor is blessed with slightly above average arm strength, great size and incredible straight line speed, though he is not overly sudden and lacks the fluidity and lateral movement of a Cam Newton, for instance.  The Raiders have nothing at quarterback -- Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller and Tent Edwards -- so it is worth taking a look at him there first.  He did improve his mechanics, accuracy and passing efficiency as a junior at Ohio State in 2010, despite a less than creative Jim Tressel offense and with a relative novice instructing him, in Quarterback's Coach Nick Siciliano.   In a worst case scenario, Pryor could be used as a red zone threat at WR -- as he was against Texas as a freshman in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl -- or as a deep vertical threat.  He could even convert to TE and be used as a vertical seam threat, like the Raiders attempted to do with former Ohio State TE Rickey Dudley.

Either way, it is an intriguing selection that should surprise...no one.