Five Early Winners in Free Agency

While Peyton Manning has begun working out for teams and is still taking visits, several other significant moves occurred during the first week of Free Agency, and here are some of the early winners:

The Bills:  Buffalo showed much improvement this past season with a fast start but faded down the stretch.  With the Bills moving back to a 4-3 defense in 2012 under new Defensive Coordinator Dave Wannstedt, it was imperative for the Bills to bring in an edge rusher to complement their two Pro-Bowl caliber DT's, Kyle WIlliams and Marcell Dareus.  With the signing of the top defender in Free Agency, former Texans DE Mario Williams, the Bills added one of the top three DE's in football.  Williams has 53 career sacks and is in the prime of his career at age 27.  In fact, with the exception of Julius Peppers signing with the Bears in 2010, it is rare to see a potential Hall of Famer at QB, LT or RDE switch teams in the prime of their career. 

This is a huge boost not only for the Bills defense, but to the City of Buffalo, who can get excited again by finally attracting an impact free agent, while also celebrating the commitment the franchise has shown by recently investing in its own players, with the extensions of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, DT Williams and the resigning of WR Stevie Johnson on the eve of Free Agency.  With the AFC being a wide open race, the Bills aren't far from contending, especially if they are able to find another vertical option at WR, a future cornerstone at LT and an impact CB this offseason.

The Bucs:  Tampa Bay had the most money to spend in Free Agency, and thus far they have not been bashful, signing the top free agent OG in Carl Nicks and arguably the top WR in Vincent Jackson.  They also signed former Browns and Lions CB Eric Wright, who is still young at 26 and possesses naturally fluid hips and solid cover skills.  With Nicks and veteran Davin Joseph, the Bucs have one of the two best guard tandems in football, and Jackson's size will give young QB Josh Freeman another downfield weapon, while teaming with TE Kellen Winslow to give the Bucs two red zone-matchup headaches for Defensive Coordinators.

The Rams:  New Head Coach Jeff Fisher raided his old Titans squad by signing physical free agent CB Cortland Finnegan, a solid defender who immediately upgrades a position of need.  The Rams also signed steady veteran pivotman Scott Wells from the Packers.  Wells is similar to Colts' free agent C Jeff Saturday, in that he's smart and understands leverage and blocking angles.  While he doesn't have ideal size and strength to anchor vs true two-gap NT's, he's still one of the better Centers in football.  

Former Dolphins DE Kendall Langford has proven to be one of the more dependable, runs-stuffing 5-techniques in the NFL the past couple of seasons.  He was signed this week and will most likely play inside at DT for the Rams in their base 4-3.  The Rams acquiring three first round picks and a second rounder from the Redskins for the 2nd in pick in next month's Draft could also help buoy the Rams' rebuilding under the strong leadership of Fisher, much like the Herschel Walker trade aided Jimmie Johnson's rebuild in Dallas.

The 49'ers:  Head Coach Jim Harbaugh's squad finished last season with six Pro Bowl defenders, and the team moved quickly to keep the unit intact by resigning free agent CB Carlos Rogers and franchising S Dashon Goldson.  

The 49'ers have also addressed their one glaring hole at Wide Receiver by signing Giants free agent WR Mario Manningham and by bringing in veteran WR Randy Moss.  Manningham is the headliner here and will add some much needed vertical stretch to their offense.  Moss, if focused, can still be a factor in the red zone with his size, and can even help open up the deep seam for TE Vernon Davis.  With the news of Peyton Manning recently working out for the team, a solid offseason could turn into a great one soon.

The Patriots:  The signing of the talented, yet enigmatic, WR Brandon Lloyd fills a huge need for the Patriots, as Tom Brady's only vertical threat in 2011 came from TE Rob Gronkowski.  Lloyd is a very talented player who is his own worst enemy at times, but under Brady and Belichick's leadership, he should find a very good home in Foxboro.

It's Never Too Early to Look Ahead to Next Year's Super Bowl

This NFL offseason should be very active and exciting, as it will be the first full one under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Free Agency will offer several potential impact players, such as Saints OG Carl Nicks, Colts WR Reggie Wayne, Texans DE Mario Williams, 49'ers CB Carlos Rogers and Packers QB Matt Flynn.  In addition, we have the uncertainty that surrounds the future of Colts QB Peyton Manning.  The Draft is always fun, and this year's crop should be a fairly deep one with two potential franchise quarterbacks, Stanford's Andrew Luck and Baylor's Robert Griffin III.

And while much will happen over the next four months in both Free Agency and the Draft, it's never too early to look at some favorites for next year's Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans. Today, I will first look at some NFC contenders, before I follow up later with the AFC.

From the NFC, the Giants, Packers, Saints and 49'ers should once again be in the hunt next year, but the Lions are closing in fast and the Eagles will be in the mix.

The Giants got healthy at the right time in 2011, and they can be even better in 2012.  For one, LT William Beatty will be back healthy, which will allow David Diehl to shift back inside to guard or even over to RT to replace the aging Kareem McKenzie.  Diehl and McKenzie were exploited by the 49'ers' edge quickness in the playoffs and at times by the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  The Giants will also return CB Terrell Thomas, who is an above average corner who missed 2011 with an injury.  The Giants may lose WR Mario Manningham through free agency, so they would be wise to add some depth at WR, along with bringing in a veteran TE and a young RB.

The Packers have some decisions to make in free agency on C Scott Wells, QB Matt Flynn and TE Jermichael Finley, but they're a fairly young squad that is built for the long haul.  They do need 2011 Rookie OT Derek Sherrod and young OT Marshall Newhouse to improve, especially if aging veteran Chad Clifton is unable to return.  Either way, the Packers need to become more stout at LT.  They also need to add some interior bulk on the their defensive line, along with an edge rusher opposite OLB Clay Matthews.  The Giants were physically more powerful and explosive in the trenches in the playoffs vs the Packers, so upgrades are needed along both lines.

The Saints should once again have a dominant offense in 2012, though they must decide if they can afford massive Pro Bowl OG Carl Nicks, who is on the wish list of many teams including the Cowboys.  The Saints signed fellow OG Jahri Evans to a 7-year/$56.7 million deal in 2010, so they may not be able to bring back the talented Nicks.  Either way, the Saints would be wise to add some depth at OT, along with a potential difference maker at DT and LB this offseason.

The 49'ers were one of the surprise teams in 2011, but they will not sneak up on anyone in 2012, and their Division opponents should also improve next fall. The 49'ers must decide first if they want to bring back free agent QB Alex Smith, while also deciding on whether they can bring back two all-pro caliber players in their secondary -- S Dashon Goldson and CB Carlos Rogers.  If I had to bet, I see at least Smith and Goldson returning, and Rogers possibly being replaced by rising 2011 rookie CB, Chris Culliver.  That said, the 49'ers may have fewer holes than any team in football, as they have a defense with six potential Pro Bowl performers and an offense that's solid at almost every position except WR, where they're starving for a playmaker and a vertical threat.  DeSean Jackson, Mario Manningham or Robert Meachem could be a welcome addition through Free Agency and give Smith a needed downfield boost.

The Lions made great progress in 2011 behind the development of QB Matt Stafford, the big plays of WR Calvin Johnson and an improving defense. On offense, the Lions would be wise to bring in at least two offensive linemen though Free Agency, as well as draft an OT in the first two rounds.  They will receive a boost at RB if Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure can return to health.  Leshoure suffered a season-ending injury in preseason last year, and if healthy, he can be a bruising three-down difference maker for the Lions.  On defense, the Lions need to bring back free agent DE Cliff Avril, who is one of the better and more underrated edge rushers in football, as well as free agent tackling machine, LB Stephen Tulloch.  They also need young players like DT Nick Fairley to mature and take the next step in their development.  If they can also add a playmaker at CB, the Lions are positioned to make noise in 2012.

Also, don't forget about the 2012 Eagles, a team who still has an elite LT, several playmakers on offense and the ability to get to the QB off the edge on defense.  They need to add at least two LB's this offseason, along with a stout DT inside, but this is a squad that weathered several changes in 2011 and still has a solid Head Coach and Front Office.

10 College Football Impact Freshmen for 2012

Over the past week, I reviewed more film on this year's top senior High School football players while also analyzing the tapes of the ESPN Under Armour and U.S. Army All-Star games.  Below is a list of 10 potential 2012 Impact Freshmen who "flashed" on film and in one of the All-Star games:

WR Marvin Bracy, Florida State commit:  Bracy may be the fastest players in the nation with legitimate 4.35 speed and will also run track at FSU.  On film, he will remind you a little of Packers Rookie WR and Returner Randall Cobb, as he is explosive in space and can be a weapon in the slot and on special teams.  Expect Bracy to make an immediate impact for the Noles next fall, giving QB EJ Manuel another weapon while also jumpstarting the Noles' return game.

DE Dante Fowler, Florida State commit:  While fellow FSU commit DE Mario Edwards Jr. will receive more hype, Fowler has great power and edge explosion and will form an amazing bookend duo with Edwards over the next 3-4 seasons.  He reminds me a little of former Noles' star Reinard Wilson, and Folwer and Edwards could end up reminding many of WIlson and his former star teammate Peter Boulware before the two leave Tallahassee.

DE Noah Spence, Ohio State commit:  Spence was electric off the edge on film and during the Under Armour All-Star Game, as he had 3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, a forced fumble and numerous pressures during the contest.  Spence may have been the best player in the game, as he demonstrated a lighting quick first step, a high motor, hip explosion and great bend off the edge.  He will step right into the Buckeyes' two-deep and will make an immediate impact off the edge in passing situations.  He and Army All-Star DE Adolphus Washington will also form quite a duo in Columbus. 

RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama commit:  Yeldon has great size at 6'2' and 210-pounds, incredible power and athleticism, which was demonstrated during the Army All-Star game when he twice went airborne to allude would-be tacklers.  He and Texas commit Jonathan Gray are the two best RB's that I've seen on film this year, and Yeldon will be able to immediately step into the void left by RB Trent Richardson, who is expected to announce that he will be turning pro.

RB Jonathan Gray, Texas commit:  Gray lacks great size, but he is physical, finishes his runs and has tremendous quickness and acceleration.  Moreover, he may have the best hands of any RB in the 2012 Class and is capable of being an immediate three-down back in Austin.  Gray will split time with Freshman starter Malcolm Brown and will give the Longhorns the nation's best blend of power and speed with their 2012 backfield.  Also, watch for Texas to have offensive sets where both Brown and Gray are on the field together to take advantage of Gray's quickness in space and his unique receiving skills.

S Shaq Thompson, Cal commit (see above):  Most experts regard Thompson as one of the top two Safety prospects in the Class of 2012, as he possesses great size -- 6'2" and 210 lbs -- speed, instinct and tremendous explosion through a ball carrier.  Thompson has an aggressive, intimidating style that you would expect from a LB, while also having the ability to excel in coverage.  Thompson leads what could be Cal's finest recruiting class in the last 25 years.

DE/OLB Ifeadi Odenigo, Northwestern commit:  Odenigo, who only started playing football as a sophomore in high school, is one of the top 3 recruits in the Pat Fitzgerald era.  While raw and still needing to add some bulk strength to his upper body and trunk, Odenigo has tremendous edge speed (4.5 forty) and first-step quickness and should improve immensely with reps, coaching and Northwestern's solid strength and conditioning program.  He will be able to see the field next fall as at least a situational edge rush rusher, or to replace outgoing four-year starter Vincent Browne at DE.

DT Ondre Pipkins, Michigan commit:  The 6'3 and 325-pound Pipkins will be able to help immediately fill the void of Michigan losing both starting senior DT's to graduation, including All-Big Ten selection Mike Martin.  Pipkins has great quickness, tremendous strength and a non-stop motor.  While he can improve his technique and tighten up his build, you can't teach the quickness and athleticism that he possesses.  If he can push underachieving but ultra-talented DT William Campbell to play with intensity on every down, the Wolverines should have two outstanding two-gap standouts next fall.

CB Brian Poole, Florida commit:  Poole has NFL size -- 5'11 and 195-pounds -- and an NFL build and plays with great instinct and explosion.  He is very physical in run support, has loose hips and can really break on the ball.  In fact, he seems to move at a different speed than other players and even demonstrated this in the Under Armour Game.  He should be a future All-SEC player who will finally fill the void left when CB Janoris Jenkins was dismissed from Florida last year.

S Landon Collins, Alabama commit:  Collins will be able to step right into the shoes of departing Safety Mark Barron, who will likely be the first safety selected in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Collins, like Thompson, has great size, explosion and toughness and can also fill a hole like a LB.  He possesses 4.43 speed, fluid hips and tremendous instincts as well as some nastiness, which will remind you a little of a young Steve Atwater.  In fact, I would not be surprised if Collins and Thompson both end up as first day NFL picks in three or four years.

It's NFL Playoff Time

A few weeks back I wrote about the recent shift in the balance of power from the AFC to the NFC, and with the recent surge of the Giants and the return of their once feared pass rush, I still feel that the four best teams may reside in the NFC as we enter the Playoffs.  The Packers, of course, have simply been the best team in the NFL this year, though recent concerns with the health of LT Chad Clifton and RT Bryan Bulaga, along with the lack of a consistent pass rush throughout the season, have caused many to question whether the Saints are a more complete team. 

That said, the good news for Packers' fans is that Chad Clifton appears to be healthy and is supposed to start next week's Divisional Game.  The Packers are also hopeful that Bulaga may be ready for action next week, as well. Even with the injuries at tackle, Aaron Rodgers still finished the season with the highest passer rating in NFL history at 122.5.  Rodgers has benefitted from the return to health of TE Jermichael Finley, a dynamic seam threat and a cover-2 exploiter, and from the addition of Rookie WR Randall Cobb, who has added much needed speed and open-field ability, both after the catch and on special teams.  Their concerns again surround the health of their OT's, the lack of a difference maker at RB and a consistent pass rush, either from inside at DT or off the edge opposite Clay Matthews.  

The Saints' Offense may be as dangerous as Green Bay's, as Quarterback Drew Brees set the NFL record for yards passing this season behind possibly the League's best offensive line, which features a Pro Bowl LT, Jermon Bushrod, and the two starting Pro Bowl Offensive Guards in Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans.   TE Jimmy Graham has emerged as the NFC's equivalent of the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski and has been a difference maker along with Mr. Versatility, Darren Sproles, who was arguably the NFL's best free agent signing, as the lightning quick Sproles broke the NFL record for all-purpose yards this season and provided a huge boost on special teams, as well as in both the running and passing game.  Also, the Saints Defense is opportunistic and has benefitted from improved LB play and a ball-hawking secondary.

The Giants are again getting hot at the right time and are a matchup headache for any team because they are physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball and can hammer you and control the clock on offense in bad weather with RB's Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, while QB Eli Manning and WR Victor Cruz have found their groove.  What makes the Giants even more dangerous, however, is the return of their pass rash, as OLB Mathias Kiwanuka and DE's Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are again healthy and have recently begun to look like their old selves.  Throw in rising superstar and future NFL Defensive Player of the Year, DE Jason Pierre-Paul and his 16.5 sacks, and you will not find a better pass-rushing foursome in football, as Pierre-Paul can be moved inside on passing downs.  The Giants are indeed a scary team and could pose a formidable foe for the Packers' offensive line if they are able to get past the Falcons this week.  

Meanwhile, the 49'ers won 13 games and placed four defensive starters on the Pro Bowl, though arguably their best defender, NaVorro Bowman, was snubbed, along with Rookie OLB Aldon Smith and his 14 sacks.  Their ball-control, physical offensive attack is the perfect complement for their Defense and presents a squad that is built for any and all weather conditions.

Any of these four teams could represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but if Clifton and Bulaga are healthy, the Packers are still the team to beat.

In the AFC, the Patriots garnered the top seed with 13 wins, though not one of their victories was over a team with a winning record.  Tom Brady had another fabulous season, but their Offense lacks vertical speed and a difference maker in the backfield.  Moreover, their Defense ranked 31st overall in the NFL, giving up 411.1 yards per game along with 21.4 points per contest.  

The Steelers do matchup well against New England, but they are banged up, as RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL in the season finale against Cleveland, and QB Ben Roethlisberger has a gimpy ankle.  However, Mendenhall wasn't a huge factor this season, and Isaac Redman is a capable replacement as long as keeps the ball off the turf.  With the Steelers having the League's top-ranked Defense, it will likely come down to the health of BIg Ben, as Pittsburgh has developed an elite passing attack which now features the League's top deep threat and burner in WR Mike Wallace, along with underneath weapons in speedy WR Antonio Brown and veteran Hines Ward, not to mention seam stretcher and red zone threat, TE Heath Miller.

The Ravens still have one of the League's top three Defenses and the solid ground game of RB Ray Rice.  They have also benefitted from finally having a vertical threat to compliment cagey veteran WR Anquan Boldin, as Rookie WR Torrey Smith is continuing to become more of a more polished WR and not simply a former track star who plays football.  However, it will ultimately come down to the play of QB Joe Flacco, and that's why I like the chances of the Patriots and the Steelers more in the AFC than I do of the Ravens.

Let the fun begin!

A Look Around College Football

Great Hire By Pittsburgh:  With Pitt now being on their fourth Head Coach in the last thirteen months, Athletic Director Steve Pederson had to get the right man, and they did with the hiring of Wisconsin Offensive Coordinator Paul Chryst, who has been the Badgers' Offensive Coordinator the last 7 seasons, while spending 2003-04 as the Oregon State Offensive Coordinator under Mike Riley.  Chryst is generally regarded as one of the bright young offensive minds in CFB, helping mold the 2011 Badgers' Offense around the skills of transfer QB Russell Wilson, as the Badgers averaged 44.6 points and 447 yards per game this fall.  

Chryst and the Badgers' Staff were also successful during his tenure of going into Ohio, Florida, New York, Missouri (Montee Ball) and New Jersey to recruit offensive weapons, and now with the scandal at Penn State, Chryst should be able to once again get a leg up in Pennsylvania recruiting.

PAC-12 will be stung by early defectors:  While everyone knows that it will be hard for Stanford to recover from the loss of Junior QB Andrew Luck to the NFL Draft, the Cardinal will also likely lose LT Jonathan Martin and All-American Guard, David DeCastro, as early entrants into the 2012 Draft.  Martin is a projected Top-10 selection, and DeCastro may ultimately end of up being the best offensive linemen from the upcoming Draft.  In fact, DeCastro could be the highest Guard selected since Chris Noeole went 10th to the Saints in 1997, especially if some teams project DeCastro as a potential Right Tackle.  

USC will also lose DE Nick Perry and LT Matt Kalil early to the Draft, and Oregon is going to lose RB LaMichael James.  In fact, if USC QB Matt Barkley enters the Draft, the PAC 12 could have as many as 5 of the Top 10 selections -- Luck, Kalil, Barkley, Martin and DeCastro -- with all of them being early entrants.  It would not even be a stretch to see the PAC-12 have the top 3 selections in the Draft in Luck, Kalil and Barkley.

Speaking of QB's and the 2012 Draft:  If Matt Barkley does declare for the Draft, we may see a run on QB's in April like we haven't seen since 6 of them -- John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Tony Eason, Todd Blackledge and Ken O'Brien -- were selected in the famous 1983 draft.  In addition to Barkley and Luck, Heisman winner Robert Griffin III of Baylor and Oklahoma Junior Landry Jones are also projected as potential Top-15 picks.  Former Wide Receiver and now QB Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M has the size, toughness, arm strength and leadership qualities that scouts crave, and considering that he's only been a starting QB for less than 2 full seasons, he has the upside that coaches and GM's fall in love with prior to the Draft -- which could also make Tannehill a first rounder.  

Throw in Arizona's Nick Foles, a player with great size, experience and productivity who's never benefitted from being surrounded by a superior Offensive Line or Running Backs, and you may have this year's Christian Ponder after Foles spends a week at the Senior Bowl, where Ponder rose from a second rounder last January.

Urban's Impact:  While Ohio State and Athletic Director Gene Smith handcuffed new Coach Urban Meyer with a 2012 bowl ban by inexplicably failing to self impose a 2011 bowl ban after the University was hit with a Failure to Monitor Charge this fall on top of their potential repeat offender status from prior sanctions, Meyer has gone defensive in his first month on the job, landing commitments from 3 of the top 15 Defensive Linemen in the country in a recruiting class that arguably now has 2 of the Top 3 Defensive Ends in the nation in Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington, along with top-10 DE Se'von Pittman and former PSU commitment, DT Tommy Schutt.  Ohio State should have one of the Top-2 defensive line classes in the country in 2012, after having a Top-3 DL class last February.  

Meyer knows that the key to SEC football, which is now guaranteed the National Champion for the last 6 seasons, is fast, athletic future NFL Defensive Lineman, and he has made that his number one priority at Ohio State.  You have to look no further than the LSU vs Alabama National Title Game to see the importance that D-Linemen have had on those squads, as LSU boast 9-10 future NFL Defensive Linemen, including four potential future first rounders, and Alabama has at least 6-8 who will one day be drafted or in NFL camps.  

Furthermore, Meyer now has a Defensive Staff full of NFL pedigrees to coach these future stars to the next level, as new Co-Defensive Coordinator Everett Withers and CB Coach Taver Johnson have NFL coaching experience, and LB's Coach Mike Vrabel is former a 14-year vet.  Even Co-Defensive Coordinator Luke Fickell spent a year on the IR with the Saints.

Basketball Buckeyes Are Off to an Impressive Start, But Still Have Glaring Concerns

No. 2 ranked Ohio State's 85-63 victory Tuesday night over third-ranked Duke was a very impressive win in a game that was never really close.  However, despite Ohio State's 7-0 start, the talented basketball Buckeyes have four glaring deficiencies that will need to be addressed over the course of the season if they are to cut down the nets in New Orleans in April:  outside shooting, scorers who can create off the dribble, size and depth -- or at least Head Coach Thad Matta beginning to play more than seven players during a competitive game.

That said, Ohio State boasts the potential National Player of the Year in powerful Sophomore Jared Sullinger, Senior scorer William Buford, SF DeShaun Thomas and the scrappy glue who holds it all together, Sophomore PG Aaron Craft, giving the Buckeyes the horses to again run through the Big Ten.  However, if the team wants to accomplish its ultimate goal of winning a National Championship, then it must address the above issues to be able to match up against long, talented teams like North Carolina and Kentucky.

North Carolina starts two 7-footers in Tyler Zeller and John Henson, along with dynamic SF Harrison Barnes, an explosive scorer who is adept at creating his own shot.  The Tar Heels also have additional length and athleticism from impact Freshman F James Michael McAdoo.  Kentucky also has incredible athleticism and length up front from three future NBA Lottery picks, Sophomore F Terrence Jones, Freshman F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and the potential number one pick of the 2012 Draft, 6-10 Anthony Davis.  Kentucky was a difficult matchup for Ohio State in last year's tournament because of their length and athleticism, and both the WIldcats and the Tar Heels would pose similar challenges to this year's Buckeyes.

However, there is hope for Matta and Buckeye fans, and that rests in trusting and developing some of their young bench players, notably Freshmen PG Shannon Scott, C Amir Williams and soon to be eligible Forward, LaQuinton Ross.  

Scott has a great handle and can penetrate.  He's also a polished, intelligent player with NBA bloodlines who could add depth and create scoring opportunities off the dribble.

The 6'11 Williams' development is crucial, as the Buckeyes will need his size and shot blocking skills if they are to have a deep run in the tournament and face a squad like North Carolina, Kentucky or even UCONN.  Currently, the Buckeyes seven-man rotation only has two players over 6'8",  F Evan Ravenel, who is generally listed at 6'8", and Sullinger.

When Ross becomes eligible on December 9th, he will be the best athlete on the squad, as he has great length to defend and the ability to create and score from the outside, as the team misses the outside shooting of David Lighty and Jon Diebler from last year's squad and needs additional options other than Buford and Thomas, as both players have proven to have streaky moments from the perimeter.  If Matta is willing to work him into his rotation, Ross, like Scott and WIlliams, has the ability to overcome some of the deficiencies of a very solid Buckeyes team.

Matta is an excellent coach, but if he wants his young Buckeyes to cut them down in New Orleans, then he needs to trust and develop his young bench and focus not on how to match up against Big Ten teams, but on how to beat teams like Kentucky and North Carolina.

Hiring Meyer Will be Great for Ohio State, But Not for the Rest of the Big Ten

From Bowling Green to Utah to Florida, Urban Meyer has won early and won big.  And when the Ohio native becomes the next Head Football Coach at The Ohio State University, he will have the talent and the resources to have an immediate impact and turnaround on a young, but extremely talented Buckeye squad

Twenty-five years ago, Meyer started his college coaching career as a Grad Assistant for former Ohio State Head Coach and now mentor and close friend, Earle Bruce.  While at OSU, Meyer would openly tell student athletes that he would one day be the Head Football Coach at Ohio State, fulfilling both his and his late father's dream.  Now, that dream is about to become a reality for Meyer and Buckeye fans.

When Meyer assumes the Head Coaching reigns, he will be positioned to compete for a Big Ten Championship and a BCS birth next season, as Ohio State returns 10 starters on Defense and several talented skilled athletes on Offense, led by Freshman Quarterback Braxton Miller, who Meyer called one of CFB's "best athletes" earlier this fall.  Miller will be the centerpiece of the turnaround under Meyer, as he possesses the unique combination of passing skills and elusiveness to star in Meyer's Spread Option attack.  Miller has shown great promise as a Freshman, running for 7 scores and 695 yards, while passing for 11 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions.  He was also able to lead his team to dramatic 4th Quarter comebacks at home against Wisconsin and on the road vs Purdue.

While Miller must improve his footwork and his accuracy, he is an extremely hard worker who should greatly benefit from improved coaching this spring.  Moreover, he possesses incredible acceleration, lateral quickness and a unique ability to almost always make the first defender miss.

And while it helps that Meyer will inherit a potential Heisman candidate in Miller and arguably the Nation's best 2011 Freshman Class, he will also have the unmatched resources to dominate the Big Ten for the foreseeable future.  

For one, Ohio is the only top-5 High School Football State in the Nation -- Ohio, Florida, Texas, California and Georgia -- without an in-state rival to recruit against.  Moreover, Meyer, an Ashtabula, Ohio, native, has strong relationships with Ohio High School Coaches and should be able to once again "lockdown" the state in the same manner as previous Head Coach Jim Tressel.  Moreover, Meyer is rumored to be adding several Assistants to his staff who also have Ohio ties.  And while Michigan's Brady Hoke is taking advantage of Tressel's dismissal and the NCAA's ongoing investigation of Ohio State in recruiting Ohio this year, expect that to end immediately under Meyer.

Furthermore, Ohio State has one of the Nation's largest Alumni bases, top-5 facilities, storied tradition and tremendous University and Alumni support.  And unlike the SEC where Meyer's Florida teams would have to face physical opponents on a weekly basis with similar elite athletes drawn from both high schools and the Nation's top Junior Colleges, he will not have to worry about that at Ohio State.

While Michigan has improved under Hoke, and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio, Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Nebraska's Bo Pelini and Wisconsin's Bret Bielema have all built solid programs, they simply do not have the recruiting bases in their states to consistently compete with top Ohio High School talent.  Michigan is primarily a high school basketball state, and only produces 3-5 potential impact recruits each year, while Ohio can consistently boast 10-15.  Moreover, the Wolverines appear to be losing a little of their national recruiting appeal, as only 2 out-of-state recruits from their last 6 recruiting classes have been chosen First Team All-Big Ten.

Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin are similar to Michigan in that the states rarely produce more than 3-5 top prospects a year, though each University has been very successful in recruiting and developing linemen.  Furthermore, Nebraska will no longer be able to recruit extensively from the JUCO ranks, as the Big Ten has more restrictive rules and higher standards for accrued credit hours for transfers than do other Conferences like the Big 12 and the SEC.  Pennsylvania's high school football talent has been declining in recent years, and the current situation at Penn State doesn't bode well for the immediate future of the program.

Therefore, each of Ohio State's competitors must continue to recruit outside of their state -- often in Ohio -- to have any chance to compete athletically against Ohio State, who historically cleans up Ohio and goes into Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana and occasionally Texas to add speed and talent in positions where Ohio may be thin during a certain year.  Meyer should only make the Big Ten talent gap between Ohio State and their rivals wider, as he will have even better recruiting inroads for the Buckeyes in Florida, Georgia, Maryland (ex-Gator Joe Haden), Philadelphia (current Florida DT Sharif Floyd), New York and New Jersey, while again building a wall around Ohio, the one Northern State whose High School football seemingly remains unaffected by the Nation's vast migration toward the Sunbelt and the West Coast.

And, unlike Tressel, Meyer will be more aggressive on both sides of the ball and will be much more explosive and imaginative on offense.  However, like Tressel, Meyer will have the resources and talent to not only dominate the Big Ten, but to again win a National Championship as soon as his second season in Columbus.

The NFL's Balance of Power Has Clearly Shifted to the NFC

From 2002-2007, the AFC won five out of six Super Bowls, including three by the Patriots.  Those six seasons also boasted several excellent Steelers, Ravens, Chargers and Colts squads.  It was truly an era of AFC dominance.

Although the AFC has still won six of the last ten Super Bowls, the balance of power has clearly shifted to the NFC, as they arguably boast the NFL's four best teams -- Packers, 49'ers, Giants and Saints -- and winners of the last two Super Bowls.

The Packers are the NFL's only undefeated team at 9-0 and are led by the NFL's best player and highest rated passer, QB Aaron Rodgers, who has five solid receivers and an outstanding tight end at his disposal.  Their talented defense will also send 5-6 starters to the Pro Bowl.  Furthermore, they have one of the NFL's youngest squad's with ten starters who are 26 or younger.

The 49'ers are the League's only 8-1 squad and are lead by a defense that boasts four potential Pro Bowlers -- LB's NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith and DE Justin Smith.  They also possess a physical, rugged rushing attack led by RB Frank Gore.  They beat an outstanding Giants team on Sunday, 27-20.

The Giants are 6-3 and have one of the League's best defenses, featuring one of the NFL's deepest defensive lines, which includes rising second year Defensive End Jason Pierre-Paul -- who has 9.5 sacks -- and veteran Osi Umenyiora.  However, what has propelled the Giants to one of the NFL's top squads has been the outstanding play of QB Eli Manning, who is having his best season, completing 63.1% of his passes for 2,688 yards (298.7 a game), 17 scores and a 97.0 Quarterback Rating.

The Saints improved their record to 7-3 on Sunday with a hard fought overtime victory in Atlanta.  Drew Brees is having another Pro Bowl season, completing 71% of his throws for 3,326 yards, 23 scores and a 101.3 Rating.  His production has been further buoyed by the offseason acquisition of versatile RB Darren Sproles and the emergence of second year TE Jimmy Graham, who leads all NFL tight ends with 62 catches for 873 yards; he also has 6 touchdown receptions.

The Packers, 49'ers and Saints also have three of the top four point differentials in the NFL.

On the other hand, the AFC top four teams -- the Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Patriots -- are all deeply flawed.

The Steelers have a suspect offensive line without a standout offensive tackle, an aging defensive line, a liability at corner, and they lack a true downhill, pounding running back, with Rashard Mendenhall averaging only 3.8 yards a carry.

The Ravens are 2-3 on the road, with losses to Jacksonville and to Seattle, and still have inconsistent moments on offense.  The Texans have already lost Pro Bowler Mario Williams for the season, and now QB Matt Schaub is out indefinitely with an injured foot, while the Patriots entered Week 10 with the NFL's lowest rated defense, as Bill Belichick starts three former undrafted free agents, including two in the secondary.  The Patriots problems are compounded by the lack of a true starting caliber running back on offense.

With the Packers and 49'ers being two of the NFL's youngest squads, we may well be entering a new era of NFC dominance and a true shift in the NFL's balance of power.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Headline the NFL's Midseason Awards

Top Team:  The Packers were a young team that had an incredible 16 players on the Injured Reserve List when they won the Super Bowl last season, and now that they are relatively healthy and a year older, they are off to a very impressive and undefeated 8-0 start.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to grow and mature and is now playing at the elite level that we saw in last season's playoffs.  He benefits from as many receiving weapons as any quarterback in football and has been buoyed by the return to health of athletic Tight End Jermichael FInley and Running Back Ryan Grant.  The injury to Left Tackle Chad Clifton is a concern, though the steady veteran vows to return this season.  Throw in arguably the League's best and deepest LB corp and three outstanding Corners, and the Packers defense also continues to excel and improve.

Most Surprising Team:  This was a close call between the upstart and overachieving Bills and Jim Harbaugh's 49'ers.  I will give the edge to the 49'ers due to their 7-1 start, which includes road wins at Detroit, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Washington.  Jim Harbaugh has transformed both sides of the ball, with a physical power running game and ball control offense and an aggressive, attacking defense -- not to mention elite special teams.  Moreover, the work that Quarterbacks Coach Geep Chryst and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman have done with QB Alex Smith is remarkable, while Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio has several starters playing at a Pro Bowl level, including DE Justin Smith and LB's NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and Rookie Aldon Smith.  Fangio has also helped resurrect the career of LB Ahmad Brooks.

Most Disappointing Team:  The Colts are 0-8, but I always felt that they had NFL bottom-5 talent -- especially on defense -- that was camouflaged by the brilliance of the injured Peyton Manning.  Therefore, I will go with the Eagles (3-4) who many "experts" thought had the most talent prior to the start of the season.  Unfortunately, these experts ignored the fact that the Eagles had a new starter at Center and at Right and Left Guard, and lacked a true two-gap Defensive Tackle and run stuffer, along with not having one difference maker at the second level of their defense, as they Eagles currently start Rookie Brian Rolle, Moise Fokou and Jamar Chaney at Linebacker.  Throw in a revolving door at Strong Safety and the health scare of DT Mike Patterson, and the Eagles have struggled defensively.

Best Player:  Aaron Rodgers is the clear choice here, leading the Pack to an undefeated start by completing 171 of 239 passes (71.5%) for 2,372 yards (338 a game) and 20 scores with only 3 interceptions.  Rodgers also boasts an incredible 125.7 Quarterback Rating.  Simply put, he continues to improve and is the NFL's best player on the League's best team.

Best Offensive Rookie:  While Rookies like the Bengals WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton have excelled, Carolina QB Cam Newton has been outstanding, completing 174 of 287 passes (61%) for 2,293 yards (299 yards a game) and 11 scores.  Moreover, Newton became the first Rookie QB in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in each of his first two starts.  The Panthers GM Marty Hurney was wise to surround Newton with a young QB's best friend:  solid veteran Tight Ends, as Hurney brought in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen this offseason.   The return to health of WR Steve Smith, a solid offensive line and three starting-quality running backs have given Newton great support in his incredible first half.  That said, Newton's mechanics, touch, pocket presence and ability to read defenses are light years ahead of where most scouts thought he would be at this point in his development.

Best Defensive Rookie:  While Broncos LB Von Miller has been solid, and Bills DE Marcel Dareus is starting to make an impact, the 49'ers OLB Aldon Smith has 6.5 sacks through seven games, even though he has yet to become a starter.  Smith has tremendous edge quickness, bend and natural pass rush skills that remind me of a young DeMarcus Ware.  Moreover, Smith will only get better as he continues to add bulk and strength to his frame, as well as game reps.   What is even more exciting for 49'ers' fans is that all of Smith's sacks -- 6.5 -- have come in the last four games, resulting in Smith being named the NFL Rookie Defensive Player of the Month for October.

*Player statistics are through Week Eight.

The LSU vs Alabama Showdown WIll Feature Several Future NFL Defenders

Last week, I wrote about how the USC-Stanford game would feature more future NFL offensive draft choices than any other game this fall.  This week's LSU vs Alabama contest is not only a matchup between CFB's top two teams, the game also showcases more future NFL defensive draft choices than any other game this season.  While each squad has plenty of future NFL offensive talent, this week's showdown in Tuscaloosa could feature as many as 10 future NFL defensive first round draft choices.

For LSU, the Tigers have arguably the top two corner prospects in CFB in Junior Morris Claiborne and Sophomore Tyrann Mathieu.  If he declares early, Claiborne is a projected top-15 pick in the 2102 Draft, and Mathieu may be the finest defensive player in the nation as a true sophomore.  He has the same cover skills, big-play ability and the toughness that made Vikings CB Antoine WInfield a first rounder when he left Ohio State in 1999.  Rising Senior Safety Brandon Taylor is another player whose best football is ahead of him, as he continues to improve weekly, and hard hitting FS Eric Reid may be the nation's top 2014 Safety prospect.

LSU also features the deepest defensive line in country, with as many as 8-10 future NFL draft choices, highlighted by the top-ranked Sophomore DE in the country, athletic speedster Barkevious Mingo, along with rising Sophomore DE Sam Montgomery.  Both Mingo and Montgomery run in the 4.55-4.6 range and have incredible bend, burst and backside quickness that should allow both to be early choices in the 2013 or 2014 Drafts.  Sophomore DT Michael Brockers is a load and will remind you of a young Marcus Stroud, and many already see him as an eventual first-day pick.  Add in the number one Freshman DT prospect in the country, starter Anthony Johnson, and LSU could boast four future first rounders from their two-deep on their defensive line.   

Alabama, though a little older on defense than LSU, has plenty of NFL talent, as well.  Senior LB Courtney Upshaw, who is projected as a mid-late 2012 first rounder, has NFL versatility in that he could project as a pass rushing 3-4 OLB for a team like the Steelers, Patriots or Chargers, or could be equally as comfortable with his hand in the dirt as an upfield 4-3 DE in a scheme that uses quick, undersized ends like the Colts.  Junior ILB Dont'a Hightower is a physical specimen at 6'4' and 260-pounds and will remind you of former Bama and current Raider standout, Rolando McClain.  Hightower is healthy this year and is playing at a high level.  He is also a great 3-4 downhill fit and projects as a first or second rounder in 2013.  OLB Nico Johnson is another 3-4 projection who should make some noise on day one of the 2013 Draft.

Alabama Safety Mark Barron is generally regarded as the top Safety prospect for the 2012 Draft, showing big-play ability and toughness, though he still needs to polish his cover skills.  Junior CB Dre Kirkpatrick has great NFL size at 6'2" and 193-pounds and is considered a potential first rounder in 2013.  He would be an ideal cover-2 fit for a team like the Bucs, Bears or Colts.  Their other starting Safety, Robert Lester, is considered a potential first-day choice in 2013, as well.  Backup CB Dee Milliner and backup Safety Jarrick Williams also flash exciting NFL potential.

And what would a Nick Saban squad be without a deep defensive line full of NFL potential:  Senior Josh Chapman, a potential first-day 2012 draft choice, is an improving player with a great first step and a strong, sturdy base who shows next level versatility as a potential 3-technique or as a 3-4 Nose.  Junior Jesse Williams is a large 2-gap player who is also flashing future 3rd-4th round skills.

So sit back and relax Saturday night and watch these two great teams battle it out while you witness many of Sunday's next defensive stars.

Despite Sanctions, USC Continues to Improve as Undefeated Stanford Comes to Town

In a weekend that saw undefeated Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, the team that caught my eye was the USC Trojans, who went into South Bend and dominated Notre Dame, 31-17.

Junior Quarterback Matt Barkley threw for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns, with star Sophomore WR Robert Woods catching 12 balls for 118 yards and two scores.  RB Curtis McNeal chipped in for 119 yards on the ground, as the much faster and more athletic Trojans racked up 443 yards in total offense.

USC improved to 6-1, with their only loss coming in Week Four at Arizona State, 43-22, when the Trojans had four turnovers and squandered momentum and a 22-21 lead late in the 3rd quarter.

For the season, Barkley has completed 68% of his passes for 2,006 yards, 19 scores and has only four interceptions.  Woods, who has become CFB's most dominant receiver, has caught 72 passes for 902 yards and eight scores.

More impressively, the SC offense that features several future NFL first round picks -- Barkley, Woods and LT Matt Kalil, etc. -- continues to improve each week as their interior offensive line grows and as young weapons such as WR Marquise Lee, TE Xavier Grimble and McNeal continue to gain confidence and game experience.

Throw in the veteran toughness of RB Marc Tyler and Five-Star freshman phenom George Farmer, and USC has as many or more future NFL offensive weapons as any team in CFB.  In fact, the recent decision to burn Farmer's redshirt has given SC another dynamic weapon with Olympic speed who can be used at RB, in the slot, at WR or in motion out of the backfield.

While the SC Defense does lack depth, they still start three future NFL defensive linemen and have a solid corp of young LB's and CB's, along with one of the top safeties in CFB in T.J. McDonald.

That said, it's the SC offense that will keep them in every game this season, and will make this week's home game vs Stanford one of the top offensive matchups of the 2011 season.

Stanford is of course led by the likely first pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, QB Andrew Luck, who has completed 72% of his passes for 1,888 yards and 20 scores.  Moreover, Luck carries the highest NFL grade of any college QB since John Elway came out of Stanford in 1983 -- higher than Troy Aikman in 1989 out of UCLA and Peyton Manning in 1998 out of Tennessee.

Stanford is averaging nearly 49 points a game, as Luck benefits from an outstanding running game, three future NFL tight ends, a solid offensive line and a standout WR in Chris Owusu.

While Stanford's defense is physical and can be opportunistic, Saturday's showdown in the Coliseum will be a classic matchup between two pro-style offenses that will feature more future NFL offensive draft choices than any other game this fall.

A Surprising First Place Showdown in Detroit

During the Preseason, few would've thought that a Week Six matchup between the Lions and the 49ers would have been the NFL marquee game of the week, but that's what happened Sunday in Detroit, as the 49ers handed the Lions their first loss of the season, 25-19, giving both squads an impressive and surprising 5-1 start.

The Lions early season success has been highlighted by the return to health and growth of young QB Matthew Stafford, who coming into Sunday had connected for nine scores with emerging superstar WR Calvin Johnson. Versatile RB Jahvid Best has also shown great burst on the ground and in the passing game to further buoy their offense.

The Lions opportunistic defense has been an even bigger surprise, led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate, DT Ndamukong Suh, a deep defensive line and improved linebacker and secondary play.

However, on Sunday, the upstart 49ers stole the day, as RB Frank Gore rushed for 141 yards, giving first-year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh his 5th win.  Harbaugh, who quickly built unlikely Stanford into a national powerhouse and left a 2011 National Title contender behind, is authoring another incredible turnaround in San Francisco -- a turnaround built on the same formula he used with the Cardinal:  toughness, a power running game and an aggressive, attacking defense.

Harbaugh, who faced some criticism when he brought his two Stanford Coordinators -- Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman -- to San Francisco in the same roles, has so far proven doubters wrong.

Roman and Quarterbacks Coach Geep Chryst have helped transform former first round bust, QB Alex Smith, into more than a serviceable starter this season, as Smith is completing 66% of his passes and has a 104.1 QB rating.  The aforementioned Gore has been pivotal in the 49ers start, as well, rushing for 400 yards and three scores in 2011.  As mentioned, he was also huge yesterday vs the Lions.

The defense has also been incredibly stout, led by the solid play of veteran DL Justin Smith and the emergence of LB's NaVorro Bowman, Rookie Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks, along with improved secondary play and the consistent all-around game of Pro Bowl LB Patrick Willis.

In fact, Smith notched two more key sacks Sunday vs the Lions, bringing his season total to 5.5 and is looking more and more like a young DeMarcus Ware, while Brooks has always been an ultra-talented enigma who is finally putting it all together under Fangio.

Throw in the game breaking returns of WR Ted Ginn Jr, and Harbaugh has quickly molded this team into an NFC contender, which is quite remarkable when you consider that he's a first-year NFL head coach who did not have the usual benefit of a full training camp, minicamps or OTA's.     

Once again, Harbaugh, a coach's son, is leaving his own unique mark.